Last modified: 2014-06-09
Abstract
Supported by data, it has been suggested that HIV has evolved virulence levels that are optimal for transmission. Some models indeed predict this, but others caution that this mode of adaptation is not self-evident, mostly due to the short-sightedness of evolution during the infection of an individual host. Several theories have been proposed to better explain the evolution of virulence, and we aim to contribute to these attempts.
We are developing a model of HIV's evolutionary dynamics that is highly detailed and realistic, and captures the interesting features of host-heterogeneity, immune escape and compensatory mutations, and selection on multiple levels. We hypothesise that these properties might be sufficient to explain HIV's observed virulence distribution.